Macroprudential Risk Scanner for the third quarter of 2025: elevated systemic risks in an unstable global environment
The level of systemic risks in the financial services sector remained elevated in the third quarter of 2025. Although macroeconomic conditions did not change significantly during this period and the economy continued to grow, elevated inflationary pressures and continued growth in real estate prices still remain the main sources of risk.
Financial markets recorded relatively positive trends supported by reduced volatility and low risk premiums. Such a financial environment supported the growth of assets and the realisation of stable returns of domestic funds, while maintaining satisfactory levels of liquidity. However, the still very unstable environment marked by geopolitical tensions and the consequent volatility of investor sentiment represent potential sources of instability, especially given the level of overheating of individual stock markets. Given the possibility of sudden shifts in market sentiment, which can trigger abrupt and disorderly market corrections, interest rate risk remains one of the dominant channels for the potential spillover of shocks, particularly on fund portfolios. The still stable capital positions of insurers and leasing companies support the resilience of the sector and its ability to absorb adverse disruptions in an unstable environment.
The focus of this issue is the analysis of money market funds as an alternative form of liquidity and savings management. In a very short time, i.e., in just over two years, money market funds have become the most prevalent category of investment funds on the domestic market. The rapid growth of money market funds has been driven by the perception of these products as close substitutes for bank deposits. This is an instrument that can provide competitive returns compared to traditional deposits and even similar conservative forms of investment in funds, while at the same time keeping relatively high liquidity. Therefore, their return has expanded the range of investment products for retail investors and represents an important step in the potential renewed, more intensive involvement of citizens in the domestic capital market. However, although money market funds provide relatively high liquidity and stable returns, investing in them is still an investment in financial instruments that carries certain, albeit low, risks of loss of the invested capital and does not guarantee the preservation of the value of the invested funds. It is, therefore, important that investors have all the necessary information and realistic expectations about the risks and differences in protection compared with deposits, with returns depending on the level of risk taken.
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